Market Update: Inflation Lower Despite Egg Prices, Job Market Hinting at Weakness, and Mortgage Application Activity Jumps

Blog posted On March 12, 2025

This morning, we got news about inflation and mortgage application submissions. Inflation on the consumer price index (CPI) came in below expectations in February while mortgage application submissions continued to surge.

Inflation: Egg prices continue climbing but energy costs decline

The CPI report from this morning came in at 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year. Here’s a breakdown of some of the numbers on the CPI:

• Shelter costs: +0.3%
• Airline fares: -4%
• Gas costs: -1%
• Food costs: +0.2% (2/3 of this increase coming from eggs)
• Specifically, the cost of eggs: +10% month-over-month and 60% annually

Job market and recession fears

The Challenger Job Cut report showed that in the first two months of year there were 222,000 layoffs announced, which was the highest level since 2009. While 63,000 of those cuts were from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), there were still a high number of non-DOGE cuts. This could be sign of further economic weakness with the unemployment rate continuing to move higher. But according to the Lead Economist at HousingWire, the bond market is not telling the same story about a potential recession...yet.

Mortgage activity

The past two weeks we’ve seen a huge spike in mortgage application activity. As rates continue trending lower, homeowners and buyers are continuing to take advantage. Two weeks ago, mortgage application submissions spiked by over 20% week-over-week, with refinance application submissions jumping by over 35% weekly. Last week, application submissions jumped 11.2%, with refinance activity jumping 16% and purchase activity jumping 7%.

We’ll continue monitoring the market and keep you updated on any big shifts! If you want to get preapproved or lock in a rate, let us know!

Sources: Bloomberg, MBS Highway, Mortgage News Daily